The 10 Surprising Senate Seats Most Likely to Flip During Midterm Elections

All eyes are on the Senate this fall as midterms draw near. The competition is steep and the gap between the two parties is closing. Here are the ten Senate seats that are expected to flip this November.

1. Pennsylvania

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Incumbent: Republican Pat Toomey (retiring)

The race to replace Representative Pat Toomey is a tight one. Democrat John Fetterman was holding a 5% lead over Republican Mehmet Oz; however, the Democrat may face a challenge due to Oz having policies that would improve voters' economic circumstances. These types of policies are green flags for voters, especially with the state of the economy and rising inflation at the forefront of everyone's minds going into midterms.

2. Nevada

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Incumbent: Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto

Republicans have done their best to tie Mastro to Washington spending and inflation, which could very well resonate with voters who live in a state where gas has gone back above $5 a gallon. Democrats, on the other hand, are leveraging abortion rights and claiming that a GOP-controlled Senate could potentially pass a national abortion ban.

3. Georgia

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Incumbent: Democrat Raphael Warnock

Warnock's edge over Republican Herschel Walker has narrowed, but Warnock is still outperforming Biden, who flipped Georgia by less than 12,000 votes. Warnock seems to be attempting to project a bipartisan image, which he seemingly hopes will help him hold on in a historically red state. Democrats are hoping that enough voters will not even consider Walker as a viable option. They have ramped up domestic violence allegations as well as airing unflattering stories about his business record.

4. Wisconsin

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Incumbent: Republican Ron Johnson

Ron Johnson is the only Republican who will be running for reelection in a state that Biden won in 2020. Although Johnson has had low approval ratings for most of his cycle, he has been underestimated before. Democratic candidate Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes swept the primary after his toughest opponent dropped out of the race. He is now facing backlash on comments he has made in the past about eliminating cash bail and redirecting funding from police budgets to social services.

5. Arizona

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Incumbent: Democrat Mark Kelly

Even though Kelly is considered to be one of the most vulnerable Senate incumbents, his opponent Blake Masters has nowhere near the amount of funding Kelly has at his disposal. Kelly is known as a well-funded incumbent with a strong personal brand, so Republicans have a lot of work to do if they want his seat. Masters has moderated his position on abortion after winning the primary, but Kelly has continued to target that issue.

6. North Carolina

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Incumbent: Republican Richard Burr (retiring)

This particular race to replace the retiring senator hasn't gained as much national attention since a Democrat hasn't won the seat in North Carolina since 2008. The race has remained relatively tight, however, with Democratic nominee Cheri Beasley gunning to be the state's first black senator. Democrats are hoping she will be able to rile up the rural black voters who might otherwise not vote in the election. They are also hoping that moderate Republicans and independents will see Burr as too extreme.

7. New Hampshire

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Incumbent: Democrat Maggie Hassan

The Republican nominee, retired Army Brig. General Don Bolduc won the primary and is now taking on first-term Democrat Maggie Hassan. His biggest obstacle will be funding. He only managed to raise $579,000 compared to Hassan, who raised $31.4 million. A year ago, Republicans were still holding out for Governor Chris Sununu. He would be a popular abortion-rights-supporting nominee in a historically blue state. Bolduc has publicly stated that he would vote against a national abortion ban, but Hassan and the Senate Majority PAC have focused in on another part of the interview where he said the senator should “get over” the abortion issue.

8. Ohio

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Incumbent: Republican Rob Portman (retiring)

Republican nominee J.D. Vance hasn't had much luck with fundraising, which has forced Senate Leadership Fund to redirect millions to his campaign. Democrat Tim Ryan had the airwaves to himself all summer, leaving Republicans scrambling to gain back ground. Polling is showing a tight race with no clear leader. Vance, who was Trump's pick, will have to work hard to consolidate GOP support after a rough primary in May.

9. Florida

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Incumbent: Republican Marco Rubio

Democrats will be facing an uphill battle with Rubio, given that Florida is a historically red state. Democratic nominee Val Demings is a strong candidate who managed to outraise the GOP incumbent. She relies heavily on her background as the former Orlando police chief, and a lot of her advertising centers around that.

10. Colorado

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Incumbent: Democrat Michael Bennet

Because of GOP fundraising trouble in other states, there hasn't been a lot of extra funding to give to Colorado. Bennet is up against a strong opponent, businessman Joe O'Dea, who openly opposes the Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. He displays the importance of family by featuring his wife and daughter in his ads and has vowed not to vote the party line in Washington. Bennet, however, has zeroed in on O'Dea for a failed 2020 ballot measure that would ban abortions after 22 weeks and says that no matter what O'Dea says about supporting abortion rights, he would give McConnell the majority he would need to pass a national abortion ban.

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This article was produced and syndicated by Wealth of Geeks.