Someone saw it coming.
On December 27, a new account appeared on Polymarket, the cryptocurrency-based prediction market. Over the next few days, it placed a series of bets — all on the same topic: the United States intervening in Venezuela and President Nicolás Maduro being forced out of power by January 31.
At the time, the market estimated the probability of U.S. intervention at around 6 percent.
The account invested $32,538. By Saturday morning — hours after President Donald Trump announced that U.S. forces had captured Maduro in a surprise military operation — that position was worth $436,759.
A 1,242% return in less than a week.
It wasn’t alone. Blockchain analyst Lookonchain identified three wallets that placed Venezuela bets just hours before Maduro’s arrest — all created and pre-funded days in advance, all betting exclusively on Venezuela-related outcomes. Combined profit: $630,484.
The timing raised immediate questions.
“INSIDER TRADING ON MADURO,” wrote epidemiologist and public health researcher Eric Feigl-Ding on X. “A suspicious new Polymarket account has now profited $150K+ via betting on Maduro ouster — the mystery account scooped up ‘YES’ positions for ~7 cents a share as the largest single shareholder. It’s now at 99 cents post-invasion. Disgusting.”
Another X user, Laurel Coons, laid out the timeline with deadpan sarcasm: “Perfectly normal, totally unsuspicious prediction market activity: A brand-new Polymarket account quietly loads up $32,537 on ‘Maduro out by January 31?’ at just 7¢ per share… Less than 24 hours later — after an unannounced U.S. special forces operation extracts Maduro from Caracas overnight — the market resolves Yes. Nothing to see here.”
Then the jokes started.
“It was Baron Trump,” wrote one X user.
There is, of course, no evidence linking any of the accounts to the president’s 19-year-old son. But the speculation — however absurd — points to a real question: who had advance knowledge of a military operation that blindsided most of the country?
The Trump family does have a documented connection to prediction markets. Donald Trump Jr. serves as a strategic advisor to Kalshi, one of the two major platforms, a paid position he’s held since January 2025. In August, he joined Polymarket’s advisory board after his venture capital firm made an eight-figure investment in the company.
In other words: the president’s son advises both platforms where traders profited from his father’s secret military strike.
Kalshi’s press account responded to the controversy by noting that its rules prohibit trading by anyone with “material non-public information.” Polymarket has not commented.
CBS News reported that U.S. military officials had initially discussed striking Venezuela on Christmas Day, but reversed course to pursue ISIS targets in Nigeria instead. The suspicious Polymarket account was created two days later.
Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-NY) is now preparing to introduce the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026, which would bar federal officials and political insiders from trading on outcomes tied to government action.
Meanwhile, at least one trader claims he didn’t need inside information at all.
A user @sweetcheeks on X said he made $80,000 betting on the strike after building a bot to track Domino’s pizza orders around the Pentagon — a pattern long associated with late-night military activity. “The moment the pizza indicator bot spotted unusual activity,” he wrote, “I was alerted on my phone and immediately purchased as many ‘Will the US strike Venezuela’ shares on Polymarket.”
He signed off: “GG and thanks for playing.”
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